corona_recession
corona_recession

You did, you made it to Friday – well done.

One big thing
You want to be careful to not be caught in a false economy. On the one hand, you see podcast revenue is up, which is likely committed revenue which hasn’t yet been pulled back. On the other, you see the pipeline of new content is reducing. But eyeballs are at all-time highs.

The London Business School put together a PDF on the economics of a pandemic and how the market reacts. It’s worth a weekend read. Slide 73 is salient, they go through a contraction in supply, leading to a contraction in demand, leading to a contraction in supply… leading to a large destruction of surplus.

We’ve seen the supply of inventory go up massively, which in tandem has seen a contraction in demand BUT we are only starting to see a contraction in supply as publishers reduce headcount. And any guaranteed rates get re-negotiated.

For brands, this is a great time to invest in equity, as it is more cost-effective than ever before. And likely will be for the next 10 years.

Notable stories this week

Deals/M&A

  • BeesWax acqui-hires team from MediaGamma to beef up ML capabilities.

Campaign of the week

bidstack-sporting-content

Smartest commentary

  • [However, OTT and subscription-based sporting platforms have not taken as hard a beating during this time. Many including WWE Network, Amazon Prime India, and Spark in New Zealand have offered subscription holidays, lowered paywalls, or have made selected content free-for-all to lure new users with the hopes of converting them to paid users post-outbreak.] “This is a smart move because not only does it show that they're aware and sympathetic to the financial issues that subscribers may be having now, but it also allows them to broaden the content and grow the audience for that content. And when all this is over, I’m sure [the platforms] will be collecting data and they would be in touch with that broader group of people”Malcolm Thorpe, MD, Lagadere Sports

Datapoints of note

See all our Covid-19 data here.

  • Morris now estimates that the overall drop in branded content campaign volume will be closer to 20% to 30% lower, though the travel and tourism category remains close to 0% in terms of the number of active campaigns.
  • Work is drying up for three-quarters of freelancers.
  • Quibi got 1.7m downloads on launch.
  • A March 2020 survey by GlobalWebIndex asked internet users in 13 markets whether brands should continue advertising as normal. Nearly four in 10 US respondents ages 16 to 64 agreed, and a similar share (35%) were neutral, compared with 28% who disagreed.

Thanks,

Ben

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