What Wall Street thinks will happen this year and what that might mean for marketers.
Investment banks like Goldman Sachs release annual outlook reports, to keep their clients informed and to drum up business 🙂. This years report from Goldman is titled Heavy Fog. I thought I’d take a peek, from the lens of a CMO. What can their POV on the markets, provide as intel for marketers. After all, businesses march to the beat of Wall Street.
This is shared more as a touch on some of the topics, with a POV on why it matters or what it means. It’s not investment advice etc, they have a bunch of disclaimers, so do take a peek at the original doc. There is a lot on recession, probability of it, prior recessions. I have not gone deep into that.
First up, the human factor.
The human factor, decision makers feel more pressure
The standard 60/40 stock/bond portfolio was down in 2022. A rare occurrence. But so folks have seen their 401ks drop which may add more pressure to their decision making. To push for more growth, to cut costs. This may be irrational to your situation but is a real thing, if decision makers feel more pressure, they will act accordingly. Senior decision makers have seen some of their peers retire early, cash out of big stock grants, and to see their retirement shrink is nerve wracking. Did they miss out? Fomo is a real force.
Within your own teams, try to be understanding, things will get better. The report even notes, the economy still grew last year, and will in 2023 as well. It’s just noisy.
Wide variance in opinions on a recession likelihood
This is a call that is likely to date very quickly – however the report notes the variance between recession likelihoods.
They conclude with a 45-55% likelihood of a recession in 23. This leaves marketers, on their toes, to cover the downside risk of a recession. But to be nimble should things change. This makes the importance of timely data in a marketing organization all the more valuable.
There was a 2% probability since 1926 that both bonds and equities were down which drives them to suggest to stay invested. To capture as the market changes. And this is a good takeaway for marketers, yes last year was volatile, but this year should be less volatile. And those that will win are those that are in market as it changes, rather than trying to ’time the market’. As by the time you do, its probably too late.
That all being said, marketers are not Wall Street traders and things aren’t nearly as dynamic as, things are up, lets go. But marketing is more real time than it was in the past, and consumers response is near real time.
The economy lags Wall Street pricing of stocks. So Wall Street tends to price in the recovery, before we experience it. So when thinking about your end customers, they are feeling the pain, home affordability is an issue, inflation. It may be the year to champion the consumer and how you can help them through this time.
Notable stories this week
- 2023 is the year marketers will understand measure and buy into the creator economy.
- Native advertising outperforms other channels at boosting mid-funnel KPIs.
- Content stays in focus at CES 2023 sad it adapts to changing technology.
- How to edit AI-generated content.
- Doing more with less, Brand publishers expect a challenging year. And the top stories of brand publishing in 2022.
- Vice Media is ready to sell ads on Twitch, starting with Refinery29’s Good Game show.
- Pepper to launch content marketing platform. And Post’n announces the public beta of its product – a collaboration platform that simplifies content publishing.
- The Creator Economy was way overblown.
- Twitter won’t let you write your own Community notes right away. Users will be required to rate a sufficient number of notes in order to unlock their ability to write notes themselves.
- Netflix branches out into fitness content.
- YouTube adds new analytics views.
- Twitter to shrink the size of ads.
- Amazon is developing a live sports app.
- Marketers lose confidence in optimizing campaigns.
- Apple is searching for a head of Ad Sales as its streaming and sports ambitions grow.
- Is the Golden Era of Humor in advertising over?
- Data isn’t direction, it’s listening.
- [Long read] Porn, Piracy, Fraud: What lurks inside Google’s black box ad empire.
- [Long read] LionTree CEO’s 2022 letter.
- CertifiKID has been acquired by Red Bank.
Campaign of the week
- Get Spam by Oatly.
View all 2022 best campaigns.
- “In an environment where people dedicate less than 10 minutes of their attention each day to advertising, we need to find other ways to evaluate engagement” –Fernanda Saboya, Director Consumer Connections, Heineken Brazil
Datapoints of note
- Netflix dominates in new content with 1,160 new tv episodes in Q4.
- Getting your app featured in a 5 minute segment on a national morning show with 4million viewers, 1000 extra downloads.
- #1 challenge for content marketers is linking content creation to business outcomes.
- The attention metric allows brands to be three times more effective at predicting media outcomes than viewability.
That’s it for this week.